"Think tragically to avoid tragedy..."

I'm not sure why or how I got started, but I really like to read about foreign policy.  The author and political scientist Robert D. Kaplan who has written at least 23 books on foreign affairs and travel.  He is a frequent contributor to The Atlantic, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The New Republic, The National Interest, Foreign Affairs, and The Wall Street Journal.  One of his most important and influential articles, "The Coming Anarchy" appeared in The Atlantic in 1994.  The article, and the book that followed a few years later, are eerily prophetic.  Kaplan writes, "To understand the events of the next fifty years, one must understand environmental scarcity, cultural and racial clash, geographic destiny, and the transformation of war."

I recently picked up and read Kaplan's book, The Tragic Mind, published in 2024.  Kaplan begins the book writing about the ancient Greek tragedies, written primarily by three of the four greatest playwrights (in his opinion and in no particular order) - Euripides, Sophocles, and Aeschylus (the fourth playwright is William Shakespeare).  He uses the Greek tragedies as a framework for his concept of "tragic thinking", which he defines as accepting limits, uncertainty, and the inevitability of suffering (which contrasts sharply with the modern viewpoint of rationalist optimism).  Whereas the rationalist optimist believes that things will get better, but not without experiencing hardships and difficulties in the short-term, the tragic thinker recognizes that even well-intended actions can have unintended and often undesirable consequences.  The rationalist optimist believes that human reason can solve even the most complex problems, while the tragic thinker assumes that the human tendency to hubris, aggression, pride, and the desire for power will limit progress.  Where the rationalist optimist suggests that human progress is real, measurable, and cumulative, the tragic thinker knows that progress is neither permanent nor irreversible.   The tragic thinker understands that every solution can create new problems or dilemmas to solve.  

While it's tempting to discount Kaplan's concept of "tragic thinking" as overly pessimistic, dark, and somber, I think he does make some good points in his argument.  I am reminded of the "Stockdale Paradox" first proposed by management consultant and leadership expert Jim Collins and named after Vice Admiral James B. Stockdale, former Vietnam prisoner-of-war and winner of the Congressional Medal of Honor (see my two posts, "Tap Code" and "Abandon all hope ye who enter here...").  The "Stockdale Paradox" can be stated simply with one of Vice Admiral Stockdale's responses to a question posed by Jim Collins, "You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."

I also can't help thinking about the High Reliability Organization (HRO) characteristic of "Preoccupation with Failure".  HROs do not look at failures as things to avoid at all cost, but as opportunities to learn and improve their systems.  In addition, HROs think creatively about all the little (and big) things that can contribute to failure and train accordingly (see my posts, "Imagine the worst" and "The failure of foresight").  HROs too "think tragically" to avoid tragedy.

Kaplan argues that by embracing "tragic thinking", leaders will approach the decisions that they make with greater humility and caution.  I also believe that proactively preparing for the worst (see my post, "Imagine the worst"), often times helps us achieve the most (read about Gary Klein's concept of the premortem in my post, "Going to Abilene").  One legitimate concern is that "tragic thinking" can be too pessimistic, and this is probably true if it is taken to the extreme.  While pessimism is defeatist ("Bad things happen regardless of what we do, so why even try"), "tragic thinking" is both realistic and pragmatic.  Through "tragic thinking" we acknowledge that life is difficult, while still leaving room for agency and hope.  Not all outcomes are preordained, yet we have to be realistic about the possibility that things won't always go our way.  

"Tragic thinking" can help leaders prepare for and even avoid disaster.  We can and should prepare for the worst-case scenario.  At the same time, however, we can also acknowledge that the worst-case scenario is not a guarantee.