I am going to avoid using the cliché that "AI won't replace humans, but humans using AI will replace humans who don't use AI", because frankly, I am sick of hearing it. I've heard a lot about how AI is going to replace a lot of white collar jobs. It could happen. But it may not.
There is ongoing discussion on whether AI will increase productivity at work. The reporter Sasha Rogelberg wrote an excellent article for Fortune magazine, "Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity - and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago". The paradox referred to involves an observation by economist and Nobel laureate Robert Solow, who famously said, "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." Solow observed that despite massive investments in new technologies - originally personal computers and information technology (IT), and now AI - fail to immediately translate into measurable increases in worker and national productivity.
Apparently, many economists, including at least one recent winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, still question whether AI will increase productivity (see the excellent overview on this topic that was published earlier this month in The Wall Street Journal). I happen to think that implementation of AI will eventually result in increased productivity, but whether or not this will lead to workers being replaced by AI is an altogether different question.
The computer scientist and Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton, who some have called "the godfather of AI" advised people to get a job plumbing. He said, "The jobs that are going to survive AI for a long time are jobs where you have to be very adaptable and physically skilled, and plumbing is that kind of job." He may be right. Plumbing is a very hands on kind of job that requires a unique skillset. I agree with Hinton that plumbers, at least for now, are probably safe!
But what about health care? Is there ever going to be a time when AI replaces physicians, nurses, and allied health professionals? I think we are a long way off from that as well. Anyone who has held the hand of a dying patient or comforted a family member during a medical crisis will understand that there is just no way that AI can replace the empathy and compassion that only a fellow human being can provide. Will AI replace some of the jobs (and when I say jobs, I am referring to some of the simple tasks that health care workers perform every day, like documenting care in the medical record, reviewing laboratory and/or imaging studies, auditing or reviewing old medical charts, etc) that health care workers perform? Absolutely!
There are three recently published studies that warrant consideration here. The first study published in the New England Journal of Medicine (see "MedAgentBench: A virtual EHR environment to benchmark medical LLM agents") tested several different large language models (LLMs) to determine if they could perform in a simulated clinical setting (and replace the human clinician). These investigators asked whether AI can take a patient history and identify key symptoms, generate a differential diagnosis, decide what laboratory or imaging tests to order (and then interpret these same tests), propose a treatment plan, and revise the plan if necessary as new data arrives. The best model was only successful just under 70% of the time. Notably, the study did not compare AI's performance to live humans (and we are certainly not perfect), but I don't think a 70% success rate is good enough yet.
The next two studies were conducted by investigators at Mass General Brigham Hospital in Boston. The first study was published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (see "Assessing the clinical utility of ChatGPT throughout the entire clinical workflow: Development and usability study") and found that ChatGPT to be nearly 77% accurate in making a final diagnosis when performing similar clinical workflows reported in the aforementioned study. As a follow-up, the investigators reported (see "Large language model performance and clinical reasoning tasks" published in JAMA Open) that publicly available LLMs generated an appropriate differential diagnosis 80% of the time and made a correct diagnosis greater than 90% of the time. They concluded that AI definitely has promise, but they also suggested that their results reinforced the necessity of having "human in the loop" involvement for medical decision-making.
So, back to my original question. Is AI going to replace us? And by us, I mean health care workers. The quick and simple answer is probably not in the immediate future. AI tools are getting better every day, but as I stated above, there is no replacement for human interaction that compromises the necessary art of medicine. But are health care workers who use AI going to replace those who do not? My bet is a simple yes. I want to come back to the topic of the productivity paradox mentioned above, as I do think it is both an interesting and important question. Stay tuned for that post in the not too distant future.
