Albert Laszlo-Barabasi mentions another more famous blind taste test involving wine in his most recent book, The Formula: The Universal Laws of Success. Laszlo-Barabasi is a physicist at Northeastern University and author of a number of books on network science, including one of my favorites, Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life. Laszlo-Barabasi argues that success is often less about individual merit alone. Instead, success often depends upon social dynamics, networks, timing, and cumulative advantage. He talks extensively about his "five laws of success":
1. Performance ("how good you actually are") drives success ("how much recognition or reward you receive") - but when performance is hard to measure, networks drive success
When results are objectively measured, the best performer usually wins. For example, think of all the events in track and field. It's easy to determine who the winner is - it's always the individual who runs the fastest race or jumps the farthest (or highest). Contrast those events with figure skating, where performance is subjectively measured by a group of judges. It's not as easy to figure out who really won. Just look at the controversy around the ice dancing finals at the recent 2026 Winter Olympics. Similarly, when it comes to business, politics, art, or academia, performance is almost always subjectively measured, and as a result, people rely more on reputation and personal connections. Laszlo-Barabasi cites a number of examples, including the world of wine! Professional wine tasters may not always be reliable when it comes to selecting the best wines, particularly in a blind taste test. Studies have shown that they can be fooled by items on the wine label (such as the reputation of the vintner) or even the fanciness of the bottle itself.
2. Performance is bounded, but success is unbounded
Laszlo-Barabasi suggests that human performance has natural limits. For example, there is a reason that it took so long to break the 2 hour barrier in a marathon, which was recently accomplished by two runners, Sabastian Sawe of Kenya and Yomif Kejelcha of Ethiopia at the 2026 London Marathon. Notably, Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya broke the 2 hour barrier in an exhibition in 2019, though his marathon was not an actual race, but rather a highly controlled, optimized environment with rotating pacemakers and laser-guided pacing. Given human's physiologic constraints, there will never be a day when someone runs a marathon under an hour. But while performance has limits, recognition of that performance does not. A good book can become an overnight bestseller if it was written by a bestselling author, while a great book written by a relatively unknown author may never get read by a large audience. Similarly, a good wine by a well-known vintner may get all of the best ratings, while at the same time, a great wine made by a lesser known vintner does not.
3. Previous success multiples future success
Laszlo-Barabasi talks about the principle of "cumulative advantage" here, where the "rich get richer" (see also my post on the "Matthew Effect"). Success creates more visibility, more opportunities, more trust, and better network connections, all of which make future success easier. Momentum matters. Graduates of prestigious universities often get better job offers. Famous researchers are often cited more, and they are often successful at getting their research published in the best journals (even when the studies are mediocre at best). A vintner who has made a good wine in the past will likely sell more wine at higher prices in the future.
4. Team success depends on diversity and balance, but credit usually goes to one person
We know that almost everything that is accomplished in today's society requires a team effort. Unfortunately, society tends to reward a single visible leader, often calling that leader a "genius" or superstar. CEO's receive the lion's share of credit for corporate profits. Scientists are awarded the Nobel Prize, even when the discoveries were made by teams of collaborators.
5. With persistence, success can come at any time
Laszlo-Barabasi uses the label "Q factor" to describe an individual's underlying ability to produce high-impact work. Because the value of any new idea is largely random, an individual's personal Q factor determines whether that idea becomes a mediocre project or a monumental breakthrough. The key insight here is that even the most brilliant, high-impact idea will fail to make a dent in the world if executed by someone with a low Q factor. Conversely, a high Q factor allows someone to consistently produce high-impact work even if their individual ideas in a given moment are mediocre.
Laszlo-Barabasi would agree that talent and effort are important. However, performance must be visible, validated, and socially amplified in order to turn it into success. Laszlo-Barabasi's five laws of success probably have more to do with how performance is subjectively evaluated than the actual quality of the performance itself. Whether that performance is ice skating, conducting and publishing a research study, or making wine doesn't really matter. I will return to the topic of blind taste tests again in an upcoming post.
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