"Be an optimist without being a fool"

I read a great book by Heidi Grant recently called Nine Things Successful People Do Differently.  Dr. Grant also wrote an article for Harvard Business Review with the same title which summarizes the book.  To be honest, the book version is relatively short (it's just 112 pages), so I'd recommend taking a little extra time to read the book instead of the article.  There's a lot to discuss about the book, so I will save most of her "nine things" for a future post.  Today I want to focus on what Dr. Grant and others call "realistic optimism" (see also Dr. Grant's 2011 HBR article, "Be an optimist without being a fool").  

Is it better to be an optimist or a pessimist?  Opinions differ.  Norman Vincent Peale, who wrote a best-seller in 2003 called The Power of Positive Thinking once said, "Shoot for the moon.  Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars."  On the other hand, the 19th century English novelist and poet Thomas Hardy wrote, "Pessimism is, in brief, playing the sure game.  You cannot lose at it; you may gain. It is the only view of life in which you can never be disappointed.  Having reckoned what to do in the worst possible circumstances, when better arise, as they may, life becomes child’s play."

Studies show that most of us tend towards being more optimistic than pessimistic.  In fact, the neuroscientist Tali Sharot wrote an article for Time magazine in 2011 and cited research that 80% of the population tends to think positively about the future, even when confronted with evidence to the contrary.  In an article published in the journal Current Biology, Sharot wrote, "When it comes to predicting what will happen to us tomorrow, next week, or fifty years from now, we overestimate the likelihood of positive events, and underestimate the likelihood of negative events.  For example, we underrate our chances of getting divorced, being in a car accident, or suffering from cancer.  We also expect to live longer than objective measures would warrant, overestimate our success in the job market, and believe that our children will be especially talented."  Our brains seem to be wired for positivity and hope (see Sharot's TED talk from 2012 on "The Optimism Bias")!

So, if our brains are truly wired for optimism, wouldn't it be better to stay consistent with our natural biologic state and stay positive?  The answer is not as straightforward as you may think.  The author Chris Loper suggests that optimism and pessimism lie along a spectrum:  

On the far left of the spectrum is unrealistic pessimism, which describes individuals who always believe that the worst is going to happen.  Loper says that this way of thinking is clearly not healthy.  However, just as unhealthy is unrestrained positive thinking, or unrealistic optimism, which lies at the far right end of the spectrum.  Believing that good things will always happen or things will always turn in your favor no matter what is simply unrealistic too.  When you always expect good things to happen, there's a good chance that you will be disappointed when they don't happen (expectations don't always match with reality).

Realistic pessimism describes individuals who always err on the side of caution.  They have an accurate assessment of reality, but at the same time, they can envision positive outcomes, even if they tend to give negative outcomes more weight.  There are likely situations where it is better to be a realistic pessimist.  For example, how many times have I wrote about the high reliability organization principle of preoccupation with failure?  If you are making a decision that involves a lot of risk, being cautious and thinking about all of the bad things that could happen is probably warranted.  However, realistic pessimists are also afraid to leave their comfort zone, take risks, and try new things.  Personal growth and development often requires just that, and we tend to learn when we make mistakes.

Realistic optimism describes individuals who stay positive about the future, yet realistic about what it will take to achieve their success.  Realistic optimists understand the difference between a belief that they will achieve their goals and succeed and a belief that they will easily achieve their goals and succeed.  They acknowledge that careful planning, choosing the right strategy, attention to detail, hard work and effort, and persistence are all critical to making success happen.  

The psychologist Gabriele Oettingen (see "Expectation, fantasy, and weight loss" published in the journal Cognitive Therapy and Research) asked a group of individuals enrolled in a weight-loss program how likely they felt that they would reach their goal weight.  The individuals who were confident that they would success lost 26 pounds more than the self-doubters ("the power of positive thinking").  Dr. Oettingen also asked the individuals to imagine what the road to success would be like and how much effort it would require.  Those individuals who believed that they would easily achieve their goal weight lost pounds less than those who thought it would be hard work to achieve their goal weight, even though they would succeed in the end.  She has found this same pattern of realistic optimism in studies of students looking for high-paying jobs after college, singles looking to find their romantic soul mate, and even adults recovering from hip replacement surgery.  

Dr. Grant writes, "Believing that the road to success will be rocky leads to greater success because it forces you to take action.  People who are confident that they will succeed, and equally confident that success won't come easily, put in more effort, plan how they'll deal with problems before they arise, and persist longer in the face of difficulty."

I will end this post, as I frequently do, with a quote.  Walt Disney once said, "I always like to look on the optimistic side of life, but I am realistic enough to know that life is a complex matter."  Being realistic AND optimistic is one of Dr. Grant's nine key ingredients to success.