Youth Movement

Yesterday, the National Football League (NFL)'s Atlanta Falcons passed on the opportunity to hire former New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick.  Instead, they went with the current Defensive Coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams (and former Interim Head Coach of the Falcons) Raheem Morris.  Here is what the Falcons owner, Arthur Blank explained his choice:

"This is a historic day for the Atlanta Falcons – after a comprehensive search we are thrilled to welcome Raheem Morris back to Atlanta as the team’s new head coach.  With 26 years of experience in the NFL, including the last three in an outstanding organization that has won our league’s championship in that time, Raheem emerged from a field of excellent candidates and is the right leader to take our team into the future. His time in LA has given him an enhanced perspective on everything from personnel, team operations, game planning, working with an outstanding offensive staff and many other things that has helped him develop into an even more prepared coach in all aspects of the game. I believe his leadership skills have grown and his understanding of what it takes to have a highly collaborative one-team culture are now at a much higher level."

The Falcons reportedly interviewed 14 different candidates, include Belichick (they actually interviewed him twice, suggesting that he was at least receiving heavy consideration).  I think the Falcons made a great hire, and I hope Morris is successful there.  Of course, now the speculation begins on whether Belichick, who needs just 14 wins to become the NFL's all-time leader in wins as a head coach (he is currently second behind legendary coach Don Shula), will coach again in the NFL.  As of today (1/26/2024), there are just two head coach vacancies - the Washington Commanders and the Seattle Seahawks, and Belichick is currently not under consideration for either job.  I read at least one article by Senior NFL Reporter Charles Robinson that gave two reasons why Belichick won't coach this year - time and power.  He has too little time (he is already 71 years of age) and wants too much power.  

Surprisingly, former Seattle Seahawks Head Coach Peter Carroll is also waiting on a new job.  Carroll has won both at the college and professional level, winning the National Championship at USC in 2003 and 2004, and following up with a Super Bowl XLVIII win with the Seahawks in 2014 (he's actually one of just three head coaches to win a championship at both the college and professional levels - the other two being Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer). Carroll is 72 years of age, and given his credentials, he may suffer from a similar issue as Belichick - he has too little time and wants too much power.  We will see.

I say all of this at a time when the NFL seems to be hiring younger and younger head coaches.  The average age of coaches in the NFL right now is 47.3 years, and over half of the current group of head coaches is under age 50 years.  The Patriots replaced Belichick with Jerod Mayo, who at 37 years of age is one of the youngest head coaches.  As recently as 2016, the average age was 53.4 years.  The trend even has a name - the "Sean McVay effect", which described a youth movement that began in 2018 when the Los Angeles Rams hired Sean McVay at age 30 years, the youngest coach at the time in the history of the NFL.  McVay found success early, which led other teams to follow suit and hire younger coaches.

I have to point out that there doesn't seem to be a "youth movement" with the upcoming U.S. Presidential election (the two likely candidates are currently 77 years and 81 years) - I won't comment anymore on politics today, as the trends in the corporate world are more interesting.  According to a study by the recruiting firm Spencer Stuart, the average age of CEO's of S&P firms increased, with a peak in 2021 of age 56 years.  Apparently, the trend increased in the pandemic, as firms were seeking CEO's with more experience to help lead and navigate their companies through a particularly challenging time.  However, there was a sharp decline in the average age of CEO's in 2022 at 53.8 years (see the Figure below), and nearly 30% of newly appointed CEO's were under the age of 50.

In other words, boards could be changing their tune, investing in leaders with less proven experience but with the kind of potential to be great leaders for long periods of time.  The "youth movement" in the NFL is all about the ability of younger head coaches to relate to their players and perhaps less about predicted tenure.  Perhaps the "youth movement" in the corporate world is about both?  It remains to be seen.  Right now, I will continue to watch the NFL Head Coaching Carousel and the trends in CEO age and tenure with great interest.