The world is changed...

I am going to borrow the Elvish queen Galadriel's opening monologue to the 2001 movie The Fellowship of the Ring (the first movie in Peter Jackson's epic masterpiece trilogy, The Lord of the Rings):

The world is changed.  I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air...Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it...

Okay, perhaps the last part is a bit of an exaggeration, as most of the changes that I am going to talk about in today's post are not all that old.  Apparently, the Gallup Poll has been asking the same question every year since 1939: "Do you have occasion to use alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine, or beer, or are you a total abstainer?"  You can tell that the question was first written in 1939, as we wouldn't ask that question in the same way in 2025.  What is surprising is that the number of Americans who say that they do "have occasion to use alcoholic beverages" hit an all-time low of 54% in this year's survey, which came out earlier this month.  Just as important is that the decreased consumption coincides with a growing belief that moderate alcohol consumption is bad for one's health, which is a majority view for the first time in the history of the survey.

Alcohol consumption, even among young adults, has been steadily declining since 2023, when 62% of Americans reported drinking alcohol, which decreased to 58% in 2024.  The trend towards decreased alcohol consumption coincides with the latest research reporting that, contrary to previous opinions, any degree of alcohol consumption may negatively affect health.  Importantly, the decline in alcohol consumption does not appear to be caused by a shift towards other drugs, such as recreational marijuana, which is now legal in about half of U.S. states.

The alcohol consumption patterns among those Americans who do drink are also shifting.  A record low of 24% of alcohol drinkers say that they had a drink in the past 24 hours, while 40% say it has been more than a week since they last consumed alcohol (the highest percentage since 2000).  The average number of alcoholic drinks consumed over the past week has decreased to 2.8 drinks/week, which is the lowest reported since 1996 (and decreased from 3.8 drinks/week in last year's survey).  

Americans appear to prefer beer over liquor and wine, which is consistent with the pattern over the last six years.  Wine remains in third place, though there are differences in age and gender.  For example, in general, men prefer beer over wine and liquor, while women generally tend to choose wine over beer. This is perhaps surprising given the so-called "French Paradox" and prior research suggesting potential heart-healthy benefits to wine consumption (see my post, "Raitis tammikuu").  

The French population, as a whole, consumes a diet that is much higher in saturated fats (think of all the cheese and butter that they consume compared to Americans - one blogger basically said, "They eat butter like it's a food group...Their cheese selection could stock a small grocery store."  Yet,  compared to the French, Americans have much higher rates of heart disease and obesity.  The classic explanation has been that the anti-oxidants in wine, specifically compounds known as polyphenols (including one called reservatrol), are "heart healthy".  However, Dr. Kristie Leong recently wrote a blog on Medium ("Why French people eat butter and stay lean (the paradox that broke nutrition science)") that suggested other factors are responsible for the "French Paradox".  Dr. Leong says that the explanation isn't what the French people are eating, but rather how they are eating:

1.  French meals average 22 minutes compared to 14 minutes for Americans.  Eating slower gives our brains time to tell our stomachs that we are full.

2.  French portions are 25% smaller than American servings, yet satisfaction levels are identical.  Dr. Leong says that a typical French dinner plate is about 9 inches in diameter compared to a typical American dinner plate, which has a diameter of 12 inches.  That three inch difference translates to a 44% increase in surface area available to pile food on the plate for Americans.  

3.  French people stop eating when they feel satisfied, while Americans stop when their plate is empty.  Given the differences in plate sizes mentioned above, Americans are just going to eat more, regardless of whether they feel full or not.

4.  French food culture prioritizes ingredients over convenience.  They eat a lot less processed foods compared to Americans.

5.  Americans eat an average of 2.2 snacks per day.  The French?  Less than one.  

6.  French culture prioritizes leisure in ways that seem almost alien to Americans (lunch breaks are sacred, vacation time is mandatory, and work-life balance isn't just a buzzword).  Less stress leads to better health.

7.  French wine consumption averages one glass per day, typically with meals.  Americans tend to binge drink, and alcoholic beverages tend to have a lot of calories.

As I've stated previously, more recent research suggests that "no amount of alcohol is safe", which is becoming the majority belief, at least according to the Gallup survey.  More importantly, there is a lot more to the "French Paradox" than just wine consumption.  The French have better dinner habits than Americans, which according to Dr. Leong is playing the most important role here.

It will be interesting to monitor the trend towards decreased alcohol consumption in the future.  I suspect that we will start to see studies reporting on the economic impact of decreased alcohol consumption very soon.  And perhaps we will also see a consolidation in the beer, wine, and liquor industry?  Time will tell.  But clearly, the world is changed...