"It's not nice to fool Mother Nature!"

I remember a series of commercials in the 1970's for Chiffon Soft Stick Margarine.  Basically, during every episode, Mother Nature (played by actress Dena Dietrich dressed in a white gown and wearing a crown of daisies) tastes the margarine and claims it is all natural ("That's a stick of my sweet, creamy butter").  When the unseen narrator of the commercial informs her that what she was tasting was actually margarine and not butter, Mother Nature replies with an angry retort, "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature!"  Her response was often accompanied by thunder and lightning or charging elephants.  The commercial ends with, "If you think it's butter, but it's not...it's Chiffon."

They sure don't make commercials like they used to!  I couldn't help but think of these commercials when I came across a recently published study in the journal Biological Conservation.  The study's publication release was accompanied by a number of news media stories, including the BBC and CNN (the National Geographic Channel produced a documentary in 2013 entitled Cocaine Hippos).  Apparently, the Colombian drug lord, Pablo Escobar imported several species of exotic animals to his private zoo in the 1970's and 1980's, including a small group (one male and three females) of African hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius).  Apparently, he too wanted a hippopotamus for Christmas.  

Following Escobar's death in 1993 (he was shot by members of a paramilitary Colombian police force), most of these exotic species were captured and relocated to Colombian zoos.  However, as hippos are notoriously difficult to capture and transport, Escobar's hippos and their progeny were allowed to wander on his now unattended estate.  As of 2019, the original group of four hippos has grown to approximately 100 hippos, some of which have been located as far as 90 km away from the Escobar estate.  

The aforementioned study modeled the population dynamics of these hippos over the course of the next several years.  Note that hippos have no natural predators in South America, other than humans (African lions and crocodiles are known to prey on hippo calves, but the South American caiman, alligator, and jaguar are likely not large enough).  If no measures at population control are implemented, the models suggest that the population will grow by 69 hippos on average per year, reaching what is called a full carrying capacity (the number of animals that an ecosystem can support - similar to the Malthusian model for humans) of around 1400 hippos by the year 2039.  

What's the issue here?  Should we care about hippos in Colombia?  The problem is that these hippos are a non-native species, and their introduction into an ecosystem without a natural predator will have far-ranging implications, particularly on other species.  Just as important, hippos can be dangerous (there have been reported attacks on local fishermen and farmers).  Others have argued that these hippos may have a positive impact (for example, through ecotourism).  

Aside from the question on whether hippos in Colombia is a good or bad thing, what is the lesson for leadership here?  Similar to my previous posts on chaos theory, Edward Lorenz, and the so-called butterfly effect, the lesson for leaders is to be wary of the Law of Unintended Consequences.  Small events can lead to dramatic effects that are both unexpected and unintended.  The "enemy of good is better", and achieving perfection at the expense of efficiency and cost may not always be the right path for an organization.  There are such things as diminishing returns in economics and hippos in Colombia.