LeeeeeeeeRoy Jenkins!

I've posted in the past about planning and preparation (for example, see "...plans are useless but planning is indispensable" or "Fools go aimlessly hither and thither...").  Over the years, a number of famous individuals have talked about the importance of planning and preparation too:

"It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him."  J.R.R. Tolkien 

"By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail."  Benjamin Franklin

"Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe."  Abraham Lincoln

"If you don't know where you are going, you'll end up somewhere else."  Yogi Berra

However, one of the most famous exampls of a failed plan comes from a video of a group of friends who were playing (I think) The World of Warcraft, a popular online fantasy role-playing computer game.  The video was first posted on the fan site Warcraft Movies on May 11, 2005 and was later posted on YouTube the following November.  The video has been copied and re-posted countless times (the most recent version with my link has over 16 million hits).

The video features a group of friends who meticulously plan a detailed battle for their next encounter.  The character, Leeroy is away from his computer at the beginning of the video, and the plan is intended to help Leeroy obtain a piece of armor which everyone else seems to possess (so, the friends seem a little miffed with Leeroy anyway).  At one point, the leader asks for a calculation on their chance of survival.  However the survival probability is calculated, the answer is "32.33 repeating of course percent chance of survival."  Once Leeroy returns, he rushes headlong into the battle, disrupting the whole plan.  His friends follow him into the battle, and in the end, everyone dies!

It's a really funny video that illustrates what former President Dwight Eisenhower once said about combat, "Plans are useless but planning is indispensable."  In other words, it's good to have a plan, but in the heat of the moment, some times those plans need to be changed.  

I hate to disappoint you too much, but the video was apparently staged.  Oh well - it's still quite amusing and it still makes a great point.

"Remember, Orville Wright flew an airplane without a pilot's license."

 Retired U.S. Marine Corps General and former Secretary of Defense, James Mattis reportedly onced told his troops, "Remember, Orville Wright flew an airplane without a pilot's license."  I am not aware of the context in which he said this, so I can't say exactly what he meant.  However, if you interpret General Mattis to mean that breaking rules and regulations is okay or that doing something that you aren't necessarily trained to do is perfectly acceptable, you would be wrong.  Just read his superb book, Call Sign Chaos or spend 5 minutes with any Marine and you will quickly learn that this wasn't his meaning at all.  What I believe General Mattis meant is that it is okay to stretch your boundaries and capabilities.  In other words, innovation and progress ultimately necessitate taking a few risks.  And we shouldn't be afraid to fail when we do take those risks.

The motivational speaker and author, Denis Waitley said it perhaps best when he said, "Life is inherently risky.  There is only one big risk you should avoid at all costs, and that is the risk of doing nothing."  The artist Pablo Picasso said, "I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it."  Finally, former First Lady and politician, Eleanor Roosevelt once said, "Do one thing every day that scares you."

All of these quotes are great - and they all have one thing in common.  We have to be able to dare to learn.  And we can only innovate and discover if we do learn.  It's really a simple point to make, even if it is difficult to practice in real life.  

There's a great story from Robert Iger's latest book, The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company (it is awesome, by the way) about a meeting that Iger had with Pixar CEO Steve Jobs.  The famous Disney Animation Studio was no longer making blockbuster hit animated movies - in many ways, they had stopped taking risks and were no longer seen as an innovative studio.  In contrast, Pixar Studios seemed to have the magic touch, releasing hit after hit after hit.  Disney wanted to buy Pixar, and Iger was meeting with Jobs in order to negotiate the purchase.  Jobs was intrigued by the idea, but he wasn't exactly enamored with it either.

Iger met with Jobs at Pixar's corporate headquarters.  They met in the boardroom, and Jobs had started the meeting off by listing the pros and cons of Disney purchasing Pixar (how many times have you made a similar list when making an important decision?).  Iger writes, "Two hours later, the pros were meager and the cons were abundant, even if a few of them, in my estimation, were quite petty."

Iger told Jobs, "Well, it was a nice idea.  But I don't see how we do this."

Jobs replied, "A few solid pros are more powerful than dozens of cons."  In other words, don't be afraid to take a risk on something if there are strong reasons to do so - even if, as in this case, the cons appear on the surface to outnumber the pros!

We should not be afraid to sail in uncharted waters.  As the American author, John A. Shedd said, "A ship is safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."  That's not what we are for either - leave the harbor!  Don't be afraid to take risks.  Don't be afraid of failing - don't be afraid of learning.   

"Rising star or sinking ship?"

 I came across an article reporting that the University of South Florida (USF) was America's fastest-rising university in the recent U.S. News and World Report Best Colleges ranking released on September 14, 2020.  Notably, in the last decade, USF has risen from a #181 ranking to #103 among all universities and from a #100 to a #46 ranking among public universities.  USF President Steve Currall said, "USF is proud to maintain its position as the fastest rising university in national rankings among institutions both public and private over the last decade.  We will continue our strategic focus on initiatives that will help propel USF to even greater heights in the future."

It seems that just about everywhere you turn in today's society, you will encounter some kind of ranking.  The Billboard Hot 100, college football's AP Top 25, Rolling Stone magazine's 100 Greatest Guitarists, the most popular baby names, the New York Times Best Seller List and the U.S. News and World Report Best Places to Retire are just a few examples.  We love to rank things from the best to the worst!  More importantly, we care a lot (actually, we care a whole heck of a lot) about where we fall in the rankings.  People, sports teams, colleges, hospitals, individual athletes - if you can rank them, they will not only care about where they rank, but they will also worry about who will pass them in the rankings.  As it turns out, we tend to worry more about those who are quickly rising up through the ranks (like the University of South Florida) even more than the others who are below us in the rankings.  

The Austrian physicist, Christian Doppler, first described the Doppler effect in 1842.  Technically speaking, it is the change in frequency of a wave in relation to an observer who is moving relative to the wave source (think of the changing sound of a siren as an ambulance is driving past you on the highway).  Well here, when it comes to rank-order, there is apparently a Doppler effect as well.  According to a recent study, "the motion of a social competitor toward a higher-status actor amplifies that actor's experience of psychological threat, and in turn, impairs performance."

These investigators found that across 6 studies (4 laboratory-based experiments and 2 real-world applications - in chess and professional tennis) an opponent's momentum (i.e. how fast they are rising in the rankings - think University of South Florida) directly causes increased stress, anxiety, and fear in the individual whose ranked higher than the opponent, which impairs subsequent performance.  Even professional athletes tend to be intimidated and make mistakes when they are playing opponents who have risen rapidly in the rankings.  

Similarly, this "Doppler-like effect" even affects how independent observers judge others' performance.  According to an earlier study from these same investigators, people, products, and institutions are judged as higher status when they arrived at their current rank position by ascending rather than descending in rank.  So, to go back to our original example, we, as independent observers (or even as prospective students applying to college) would be even more impressed by the University of South Florida because they have rapidly risen in ranks.  Subjectively, their top 50 ranking among public universities seems higher because they reached that ranking on the way up as opposed to on the way back down.  

It's important to be cognizant of this so-called "Doppler-like effect" as leaders.  For example, when it comes to the U.S. News and World Report Best Hospital rankings, an upward movement in the rankings always feels better than a fall in the rankings.  More importantly, our natural tendency is to place more importance on either a consistent move up in the rankings (year-to-year) or even a big jump upwards in the rankings in a single year.  The same is true internally, as we think about whether we should rank hospital teams or even individuals (say, by quality outcomes, patient/family experience scores, infection rates, etc).  Competition often motivates us to do our best.  However, the perceived "threat" of teams or individuals who are rapidly ascending the ranks may actually impair the performance of other teams and individuals, so forcing teams or individuals to compete may actually backfire in the long run.  

Kissing a toad to make a prince

 The "Oracle of Omaha" and famed investor, Warren Buffett, once compared corporate mergers to the fairy tale of the The Frog Prince by the Brothers Grimm.  He was a little off (we will forgive him for that), but he basically said that corporate CEO's often believe that they are like the princess in the fairy tale and that their kisses can turn a toad into a handsome prince.  In other words, the CEO believes that he or she has the leadership skills necessary to turn a failing company into a successful one.  Buffett went on to say, "We've observed many kisses but very few miracles."

What Buffett is talking about here is something called "hubris" (defined by good ole Merriam-Webster as "exagerrated pride or self-confidence").  Hubris - particularly a leader's hubris - has been studied in a number of contexts in the business literature.  Consider a 1997 research study published in the journal, Administrative Science Quarterly by Matthew Hayward and Donald Hambrick.  These two investigators reviewed all pairs of publicly traded firms involved in mergers and acquisitions from 1989 and 1992 and found that, on average, the premium that firms paid to acquire or merge with another firm was positively correlated with the acquiring company's recent performance (as determined by the previous 12 months shareholder returns), media praise (as determined by magazine, television, or newspaper coverage of the CEO), and CEO hubris (determined by the pay of the CEO relative to peers).  In other words, the greater the CEO's degree of confidence in his or her leadership abilities, the more likely the degree of confidence that the CEO can "turn things around" at the other company (and hence the higher the company ends up paying for the acquisition).

A more recent study in the Journal of Business Ethics reviewed over 160 Korean companies from 2001 through 2008 and found that the greater the degree of CEO hubris, the worse the company's financial performance!  An article in Forbes magazine suggested that CEO hubris damages a company's brand!  Hubris leads to bad decisionmaking, and bad decisions lead to all kinds of other problems.

As the writer and historian Erik Larson has said, "Where there is hubris, there is tragedy."  Overconfidence - or arrogance - can and will get people killed.  Just take a look at some of history's most famous disasters and you will find a common thread - hubris.  It's almost as if organization leaders say to themselves, "This could never happen to us because we are so great!"  Case in point - just look at what happened with the RMS Titanic, which was called the  "unsinkable ship."  Captain Edward Smith, Titanic's first (and only) captain, said, "I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder.  I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel.  Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that."  An unknown crew member famously said, "God himself could not sink this ship!"  Everyone knows what happened to the Titanic in the end.

The bottom line here is that you don't have to be a CEO of a "Fortune 500" company or the captain of a cruiseliner to be at risk for hubris.  There is a fine line between being confident in your own abilities and being overconfident.  Fortunately, hubris is a learned trait, which means that you can unlearn it!  

If you are making a major decision and find yourself justifying that decision with your leadership ability ("I know this seems like a risk, but I got this!"), you should probably think twice.  You may stick with your original decision, but good practice dictates that you should at least make a more critical evaluation of your rationale.  It's always good practice to have a so-called "devil's advocate" - an individual who feels empowered to provide a good rationale for the counterdecision.  Leaders should welcome alternative viewpoints and encourage members of the team to speak up for alternative decisions.

With a little practice and focus, we can learn to avoid hubris.  As the writer Mark Twain said, "Human pride is not worthwhile; there is always something lying in wait to take the wind out of it."  Don't let that something take the wind out of your sail, and don't ever try to kiss a toad to make a prince!

Broken legs

 I came across an interesting story in Forbes magazine the other day that may provide some important context for the issues of the day.  Apparently, several years ago, the American anthropologist, Margaret Mead was asked by one of her students, "What is the first sign of civilization?"  It's really an interesting question when you think about it.  I can imagine that Dr. Mead would have said something like tools, clay pottery, or even some rudimentary form of writing.  Nope.  She said that the first sign of civilization was a 15,000 year-old fractured human femur found at an archaeological site.

What does a broken leg (the femur, or thigh bone, is the longest bone in the human body) have to do with civilization?  Well, in this case, the femur revealed a healed fracture.  As Dr. Mead explained it, if an animal breaks its leg, it usually dies.  Animals with broken legs can't run away from predators.  They can't even move to find water to drink or food to eat.  If the animal happens to be part of a social group (like a herd), it is often left behind to die.  The same would have been true for early humans prior to the dawn of civilization.  The fact that the leg bone revealed a healed fracture suggests that someone stopped to help this early human.  Rather than leaving the human behind to die, someone actually took care of the human until his or her broken leg had healed.

In other words, caring for our fellow humans was considered by a leading anthropologist to be the earliest sign of civilization, that point in our history when we moved from being just another member of the animal kingdom to perhaps the essence of what makes us truly human.  We became humans when we showed empathy, when we cared for each other, and we took time to help each other.  

I look at what is happening in our world today, and I can't help but wonder whether we've lost something along the way.  The Austrian physician Alfred Adler said, "Empathy is seeing with the eyes of another, listening with the ears of another and feeling with the heart of another."  We seemed to have lost some of that empathy, and perhaps as a result we have lost some degree of our civilization.

Incidentally, Dr. Margaret Mead was awarded the President Medal of Freedom (posthumously) by President Jimmy Carter on January 19, 1979.  Her citation read, in part, as follows:

Margaret Mead was both a student of civilization and an exemplar of it. To a public of millions, she brought the central insight of cultural anthropology: that varying cultural patterns express an underlying human unity. She mastered her discipline, but she also transcended it. Intrepid, independent, plain spoken, fearless, she remains a model for the young and a teacher from whom all may learn.

Perhaps we can learn something from Dr. Mead today.

"Let my country awake"

 A few weeks ago, someone posted a video of the actor Martin Sheen reciting one of his favorite poems on the occasion of his 80th birthday.  The poem was by the Indian poet, Rabindranath Tagore, who won the Nobel Prize in literature in 1913.  The poem is called "Where the Mind is Without Fear" (Gitanjali 35).  

Sheen clearly loves the poem, as he also recited it in a speech this past year at a protest about climate change organized by fellow actor and his Grace and Frankie co-star, Jane Fonda.  He said at that time, "We are called to find something in our lives worth fighting for.  Something that unites the will of the spirit with the work of the flesh.  Something that can help us lift up this nation and all its people where the heart is without fear and the head is held high, where knowledge is free."

Here is the full text of Tagore's poem:

Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high;
Where knowledge is free;
Where the world has not been broken up into fragments by narrow domestic walls;
Where words come out from the depth of truth;
Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection;
Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way into the dreary desert sand of dead habitat;
Where the mind is led forward by thee into ever-widening thought and action
Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake.

I can see why Sheen is so fond of Tagore's poem.  Our country - indeed, our world - is at a major crossroads right now.  The direction in which we choose to go, right now at this moment in time, will have long-lasting repercussions, not only for the rest of our lives, but also for the lives of all the people that will follow.  Let my country awake.  Let my country awake.

"It is a process, not a destination"

 If you were around during the 1980's, you probably remember a hit song by the British rock band, Dire Straits called "Industrial Disease".  I don't know if there is such a thing or not (it probably is a thing), but there is definitely something called "Success Disease."  The legendary San Francisco 49ers football coach, Bill Walsh, wrote about "Success Disease" in his book, "The Score Takes Care of Itself", but undoubtedly he wasn't the first person to describe it.  Walsh described it as follows:

First comes confidence, followed quickly by overconfidence, arrogance, and a sense that 'we've mastered it; we've figured it out; we're golden.  But the gold can tarnish quickly.  Mastery requires endless remastery.  In fact, I don't believe there is ever true mastery.  It is a process, not a destination.

If you think you've finally reached the peak of success, you are absolutely wrong.  Albert Einstein reportedly once said, "Once you stop learning, you start dying."  The same can be said about improvement.  Once you stop improving, you are finished.  There is no such thing as perfection, and the sooner that you accept that fact, the better off that you will be.

Case in point.  Again, if you lived during the 1980's, you will remember the 1985 benefit concert, Live Aid, a concert held simultaneously at London's Wembley Stadium and Philadelphia's JFK Stadium to raise money for the Ethiopian Famine relief.  Legendary singer/songwriter/drummer, Phil Collins sang his then hit song, Against All Odds for the London crowd.  The fans, and even Collins' fellow musicians were in for a treat (if you look close at the video, you will notice Sting watching Collins play).  By that point, Collins had successful award-winning careers as both the member of the rock band Genesis and as a solo musician.  If you listen carefully, right around 1 minute into the song, Collins makes a mistake.  It's a tiny one, but you can certainly notice it if you are paying attention.  He brushed it off, smiled, and kept on playing.  Nobody is perfect!  Even the great ones make mistakes.  More importantly, even the great ones still practice.

Successful teams are likely to get complacent.  They are frequently risk-averse.  And they frequently underestimate a challenger's ability to unseat them from their perch on the mountaintop.  Don't succumb to "Success Disease".  

"You can never reach perfection, but you can believe in an asymptote toward which you are ceaselessly striving."  Practice makes perfect.  Set the bar high.  Keep improving, no matter what.