Welcome to the Age of Uncertainty

 A few months ago, I wrote a post that asked the question, "What if this isn't the storm?"  The post was based, in part, by a Harvard Business Review article written by Cheryl Elnhorn, Founder and CEO of Decisive, a decision sciences company that trains people and teams in complex problem solving and decision-making skills.  Elnhorn asked the question, "What is this isn't the storm?  What if it's the climate?"  In other words, what happens if the VUCA world in which we live is not a blip, but the new norm?

There is no question that we live in uncertain times.  The journalist Simone Stolzoff recently cited statistics from a global economic uncertainty index that suggested that the five highest periods of uncertainty since the 1980's have all occurred during the last five years (see the graph below).

Stolzoff further makes the argument (see his article in Harvard Business Review, "Leader's, It's time to Build Your Tolerance for Uncertainty") that the ability to manage uncertainty has never been more important to leadership success.  His new book, How Not to Know: The Value of Uncertainty in a World that Demands Answers (coming out in May 2026) provides a roadmap for not only dealing and tolerating uncertainty, but thriving in it!  Here are three key principles, based upon his work with leading psychologists, economists, and philosophers:

1. Find Your Anchors

Stolzoff writes, "Certainty in some aspects of your life makes it easier to hold onto uncertainty in others."  If you are dealing with uncertainty (and if you are a leader in today's society, you are certainly dealing with uncertainty), find the areas in your personal and professional life that are constant and unchanging.  If you can anchor on those areas that are certain to you, you will be better prepared to navigate through uncertainty.

2. Build to Learn

I want to talk more about this principle in greater detail in a future post, but suffice it to say that we should spend less time planning for how to navigate through uncertainty and more time experimenting.  We should use uncertainty as an opportunity to change for the better.

3. Row Through the Fog

Stolzoff compares being a leader during a period of unprecedented uncertainty to rowing a boat on a foggy lake.  "You can't see far ahead or know precisely where you'll end up, but you have two jobs: to maintain faith that you'll eventually reach land and to keep rowing."  When we see uncertainty as an opportunity to learn and grow (see too the point above), we tend to see the world with a different set of eyes, which will allow us to explore new ways of thinking.