Butterflies

The word chaos comes from the Greek khaos meaning "emptiness, vast void, or abyss."  It was first used in ancient Greek mythology to describe the state of the world before creation.  Chaos theory refers to the study of the irregular and unpredictable evolution of complex systems and is perhaps best illustrated by Edward Norton Lorenz and his famous "butterfly effect" (see also the famous poem, whose author is unknown, "For want of a nail").  Basically, Lorenz suggested that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas.

Lorenz was studying local weather patterns using a computerized simulation, which included several different variables such as temperature, air pressure, and wind speed.  As the story goes, he had run the simulation earlier in the day and was repeating it to validate his initial results.  He briefly left the computer program running while he went to go for a cup of coffee.  Upon his return, he was shocked to find that the results had dramatically changed.  He had changed just one of the variables by rounding off a few decimal places (0.506127 was changed to 0.506).  However, to his amazement this small change yielded a much larger change in his results.  

Lorenz published his findings in a little known paper entitled, "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow" in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences in 1963.  Very few scientists paid attention to this paper at first (the paper was cited just three times over the next 10 years).  However, over time, this little known paper was recognized as the first to describe one of the foundational principles in the field of chaos theory, which has been applied in fields as diverse as biology, geology, and physics.  

The "butterfly effect" has even made its way into pop culture.  Robert Redford's character in the 1990 movie, Havana claimed, "A butterfly can flutter its wings over a flower in China and cause a hurricane in the Caribbean."  Jeff Goldblum's character in Jurassic Park said, "A butterfly can flap its wings in Peking, and in Central Park, you get rain instead of sunshine."  

I recently came across a short story by Ray Bradbury that reminded me a lot of the "butterfly effect" called "A Sound of Thunder".  Bradbury's story first appeared in Collier's magazine in 1952, but nevertheless Lorenz is still credited for coining the term and concept.  After reading the short story, I was taken back to my childhood when I was fascinated with the concept of time travel.  

The story is set far into the future (in the year 2055, to be exact), and the main characters are talking about how relieved they are that someone named Keith beat someone else named Deutscher in the recent U.S. Presidential election.  The main character, Eckels is purchasing a ticket with a commercial safari company that takes their clients back in time to hunt dinosaurs.  The safari guide warns them that they shouldn't touch anything and that they should only kill designated dinosaurs (ones that the company followed closely in time to make sure that they were going to die shortly anyway).  The safari is even conducted upon a levitating path so that the clients don't touch and disturb the ground.  Apparently, even the slightest change could alter the course of history.  

Here's an excerpt from the story, when the safari guide is explaining what could happen if Eckels accidentally kills a mouse in the past.

"All right," Travis continued, "say we accidentally kill one mouse here.  That means all the future families of this one particular mouse are destroyed, right?"

"Right."

"And all the families of the families of the families of that one mouse!  With a stamp of your foot, you annihilate first one, then a dozen, then a thousand, a million, a billion possible mice!"

"So they're dead," said Eckel.  "So what?"

"So what?" Travis snorted quietly.  "Well, what about the foxes that'll need those mice to survive?  For want of ten mice, a fox dies.  For want of ten foxes, a lion starves.  For want of a lion, all manner of insects, vultures, infinite billions of life forms are thrown into chaos and destruction.  Eventually it all boils down to this: fifty-nine million years later, a caveman, one of a dozen on the entire world, goes hunting wild boar or saber-toothed tiger for food.  But you friend, have stepped on all the tigers in that region.  By stepping on one single mouse.  So the caveman starves.  And the caveman, please note, is not just any expendable man, no!  He is an entire future nation.  From his loins would have sprung ten sons.  From their loins, one hundred sons, and thus onward to a civilization."

You get the idea - for want of a nail, the kingdom was lost.  Well, you can probably guess what happens.  Eckels gets too scared to shoot the dinosaur and runs back to the time machine.  While running, he stumbles and unknowingly steps on a tiny butterfly.  They return back to their present day, 2055, to find things are just a little off compared to when they had left.  And they discover that President Deutscher has actually won the election!

My point here is not to talk about time travel (although that would be cool).  And I really don't want to talk specifically about butterflies either.  The take-home message here is that each and every one of us can have a tremendous impact on the world.  We may not ever see it, but we do.  

It's very easy right now to feel a little jaded about what is happening in our world.  It's very easy to be cynical, or worse maybe even hopeless.  But that would be the wrong response - because we can make a difference.  Each of us has a job to do, and no matter how small that job is, it can and will make a difference.  Somewhere.  Somehow.  It will make a difference.

Just consider a recent article written by Anton DiSclafani in the New York Times.  DiSclafani is a left-leaning Democrat who decided to vote in the most recent Alabama primary (Alabama has an open primary, so he voted in the Republican primary).  He voted for what he thought was the best choice for him, even though neither candidate came even close to representing his personal and political views and values (in this case, the best candidate was the least worst candidate).  DiSclafani's vote ended up being the deciding vote (his candidate won by one vote!).

This coming Tuesday is Election Day in the United States.  It's going to be an important one.  Remember, every vote counts, so go out and please vote!  Your vote matters.  Your contributions matter.  You are that butterfly in Brazil flapping his wings and causing a tornado in Texas!