Friday, March 4, 2022

"It's better to be lucky than good..."

One of our daughter's elementary school teachers used to give all the students in her class a peppermint candy before every test.  She claimed that the peppermint "woke everyone up" (i.e. increased their level of alertness), so that they would perform better on the test.  Later, that same daughter tested that theory in her science fair project (just for the record, she concluded that peppermints didn't improve test performance).  Regardless, my wife, who is a middle school math teacher, still gives her students a peppermint before every major test.

We are all superstitious to some extent.  Most of us believe in luck, and a lot of us own "good luck charms."  Famously, the basketball superstar, Michael Jordan, used to wear his old University of North Carolina gym shorts underneath his Chicago Bulls uniform for good luck.  If you're a golf fan, you know Tiger Woods always wore a red shirt on Sundays (typically the last day of the tournament), again for good luck.    The University of Notre Dame football team famously has worn green jerseys (the official school colors are blue and gold) for big games.

If you have ever crossed your fingers, uttered the phrase "knock on wood", searched the ground for a four-leaf clover, or carried any form of "good luck charm" (rabbit's foot, medallion, etc), there's a good chance that you believe, at least partially, in superstitions.  The dictionary defines superstition as a widely held but unjustified belief in supernatural causation leading to certain consequences of an action or event, or a practice based on such a belief (as an aside, the singer Stevie Wonder has a great song called Superstition that lists a number of common superstitions - check it out here).  

Studies have shown that people are more likely to resort to superstitions when they are feeling uncertain, stressed, or lack control.  We experience a number of these feelings when we are in situations where we have to perform at our best (e.g. before a major exam or an important game).  It is during these same situations where we often resort to our belief in good luck, and it is that belief in luck that gives us a reason to be optimistic, hopeful, and confident that things will work out in our favor.  That, in essence, is what gives "luck" its power.  Feeling optimistic, hopeful, and confident actually increases the chance that we will be successful - optimism, hope, and confidence fuels better performance.  If "luck" is the source of that optimism, hope, and confidence, by extension it is that same "luck" that drives us to better performance!

Three investigators from the University of Cologne actually tested this relationship in a study published in the journal, Psychological Science ("Keep Your Fingers Crossed! How Superstition Improves Performance").  They conducted four separate experiments, all of which tested performance on a certain skill-based task (e.g., putting a golf ball or a memory task similar to the game Concentration).  Study participants were randomized to one of two groups - experimental group, in which luck-related superstitions were activated by a saying ("break a leg"), action ("cross your fingers"), or a lucky charm and a control group (no luck-related superstitions).  Activating a good luck superstition in these ways all significantly improved subsequent performance on one of these skill tasks or tests of memory.  Based on surveys conducted during these experiments, the investigators showed that the performance-enhancing effects of luck were mediated by an increase in the participants' perceived level of confidence in completing the task!

This is obviously just one study, but other investigators have found similar results and made similar conclusions.  I still believe, rather strongly, that there is no substitute for talent, hard work, dedication, and commitment.  As Thomas Jefferson once said, "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."  I also believe, again rather strongly, that we make our own luck (see one of my older posts from 2017, "Good luck is the twin of hard work").  Perhaps this study (and the others like it) suggest that we all use a little superstition too.  

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