LA Speed Check

There's an old adage, "If you can measure it, you can improve it."  I absolutely agree - unfortunately, there is a corollary that says, "If you can measure it, you can rank it."  I've talked about two related concepts in the past known as Goodhart's Law and Campbell's Law (see "Your quality measure is no longer useful" and "Forced ranking - Goodhart's Law redux?", respectively).  

Goodhart's Law states that "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to become a good measure.  When we establish a certain measure for performance, our natural response is to rank individuals on how they perform on that measure.  It follows that the individuals being ranked will work hard to improve their performance on that measure.  For example, when teachers are evaluated on the ability of their students to achieve certain benchmarks on standardized testing, studies show that they will "teach to the test" and emphasize the concepts that appear on the test to the exclusion of the ones that don't.      

Campbell's Law basically says, "When a measure becomes a target, people will be motivated to cheat in order to achieve that target."  Take, for example, the Wells Fargo accounting fraud scandal that came to light in 2016.  Wells Fargo established certain targets for their bankers - open a certain number of new credit card accounts every month, as one example.  Several employees of the bank actually opened up dummy accounts in order to meet these strict quotas.  Unfortunately, this was just one example of many cases of fraud, which ended up costing Wells Fargo fines and lawsuits totaling almost $3 billion.

Whenever we rank individuals (or organizations for that matter) based upon an attribute or performance, we run the real risk of creating another example of Goodhart's or Campbell's Law.  We take great pride at being the best - and it often gets us into trouble.

Brian Shul, a retired major in the United States Air Force, flew over 200 combat missions in the Vietnam War.  After nearly losing his life after being shot down towards the end of the war, he eventually returned to the United States and flew the SR-71 Blackbird, at the time one of the fastest military planes in existence.  The SR-71 was designed to fly at extremely high altitudes (85,000 feet) at high speeds (Mach 3.2, or three times the speed of sound).  If the "bad guys" shot a missile at the SR-71, it could just outrun the missile.

Shul tells a story that has come to be known as the "LA Speed Check".  Shul and his co-pilot "Wally" were on a routine training mission flying their SR-71 over the western United States.  Importantly, commercial air traffic controllers can see military aircraft on their radar scopes, though Shul's SR-71 was far higher than any other aircraft and was largely ignored.  Shul started to monitor the commercial radio traffic - in this case the communications between airplanes flying around Los Angeles (Los Angeles Center).  They first heard a lone Cessna pilot asking for a ground speed check.  The reply from Los Angeles Center was, "November Charlie 175, I'm showing you at ninety knots on the ground."

A few minutes later, the pilot of a slightly faster Twin Beech plane asked, in a slightly more arrogant "I'm faster than you are" voice for a speed check.  Again, Los Angeles Center replied, "I have you at one hundred and twenty-five knots of ground speed."

Not to be outdone, a nearby Navy pilot flying a F-18A Hornet called for a speed check in an incredibly cocky voice, "Center, Dusty 52 ground speed check."  Again, the reply, "Dusty 52, Center, we have you at 620 on the ground.”

Now, as he listens to all of this back-and-forth chatter, Shul wonders why the Navy pilot needs a speed check.  He is flying one of the most sophisticated airplanes in the world, and his air speed is displayed right in front of him on his "Heads Up Display."  Clearly this is a situation where the Navy pilot simply wants to rub it in that he is flying the coolest, the fastest, and the baddest plane in the sky!

By this point, Shul is ready to play around some.  They are flying about 13 miles above the Earth at speeds approaching 2,000 knots.  Regardless, in his calmest voice, Shul asks, "Los Angeles Center, Aspen 20, can you give us a ground speed check?”  Again, the reply, "Aspen 20, I show you at one thousand eight hundred and forty-two knots, across the ground."

At this point, Shul's co-pilot Wally joins in on the fun.  "Ah, Center, much thanks, we’re showing closer to nineteen hundred on the money."  The last reply from Los Angeles Center comes next, "Roger that Aspen, Your equipment is probably more accurate than ours. You boys have a good one."

The lesson here?  There's always someone who is going to be smarter, stronger, or faster than you.  There will always be organizations that are better positioned to succeed than your own.  It's all okay.  The important lesson is not to get too caught up in being at the top, thereby risking a "Campbell's Law" kind of situation.

Legendary UCLA college basketball coach, John Wooden, said, “Never try to be better than somebody else.  But most importantly, never cease trying to be the best you can be.”  We will always have performance goals and targets, and we will always have standards by which we are compared with others.  The important thing, in the end, is how we measure up to ourselves.