The Popovich Effect

Every year, at least for the last several years, before the start of the new NBA season, Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight analyze the statistics for every player on each team and run a series of simulations (over 10,000 simulations of the entire NBA season schedule) to come up with a projected win-loss record.  The 2014 NBA Preview "The Rise of the Warriors" revealed something very interesting.  They went a little further into the statistics and analyzed all of the NBA coaches' wins above expectation, by career, from 1980-2014 (consider some of the names of the coaches during this period of time - Phil Jackson, George Karl, Don Nelson, Pat Riley, just to name a few - the list is pretty impressive).  However, one coach stood out among all the rest - Gregg Popovich from the San Antonio Spurs.  Over the course of his career, Coach Popovich beat the computer's predicted wins by 117 wins over his 18 seasons with the Spurs.  His wins above expectation beat out second-ranked George Karl by 33 wins and nearly 62 more wins than legendary coach Phil Jackson.  In other words, Coach Popovich's teams always seem to do far better than what everyone expects (well, perhaps most people now expect that the Spurs will perform better than expected).  Here is the graphic from the 538 article:



Pretty amazing, right?!?!?


How does Coach Popovich do it, every year?  How does he get the most out of his players?  It's not through fear or intimidation.  Don't get me wrong, Coach Popovich has his moments (at referees, at his own players, and at post-game press conferences).  He does it through strong leadership.  Just take a listen to some of the things his players have said about his leadership style (see here and here and here for the original articles):


"He has the ability to keep egos in check by running a fair system that any professional athlete can respect.  His willingness to confront his star players as he would his role players.  It sends a balanced message to all." [from former player, Samaki Walker]


"He's not afraid to say what he believes and stand by it.  He genuinely cares about his players.  It's more than basketball." [from former player Malik Rose]


"He doesn't believe in having a superstar and having one person greater than the whole." [from Spurs superfan Spurs Jesus]


"You know where you stand with Pop.  He treats everyone equal." [from former player, Speedy Claxton]


"A lot of coaches can yell or be nice, but what Pop does is different.  He delivers two things over and over: he'll tell you the truth, with no BS, and then he'll love you to death." [from Assistant Coach, Chip Engelland]


"Hug 'em and hold 'em.  We gotta hug 'em and hold 'em." [from Coach Popovich himself]


In a word - he values his players.  All of them.  Not just the superstars.  And not just for their skills on the basketball court.  He values what they do their whole life.  He takes a genuine interest in them personally and professionally.  He cares.  His coaching is built on mutual respect, passion for life and the game of basketball, and 100% commitment to his team and their mission.  There's a lot we can learn from Coach Popovich.