Forty-eight years ago today (January 12, 1969), "Broadway Joe" Namath delivered on his personal guarantee, and the New York Jets upset the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III, 16-7. Super Bowl III was actually the first time that the professional football championship was officially called the "Super Bowl" and pitted the American Football League (AFL) champions, the New York Jets, against the National Football League (NFL) champions, the Baltimore Colts. The Colts, coached by legendary Hall of Fame coach Don Shula and Hall of Fame quarterback (and perhaps the greatest quarterback to ever lace up the high-top cleats!) Johnny Unitas, were heavily favored to win the game. Unitas had been hurt for most of the season, and the Colts were led by back-up quarterback, Earl Morall (who would go on to win the Most Valuable Player award that year). Morall actually started the Super Bowl, but was later replaced by Unitas because of an ineffective offensive performance.
Most football experts, fans, and sports writers felt that the players in the AFL, as a whole, were less talented than the players in the NFL. The Colts were considered, at that time, "the greatest football team in history" (which, given the success of the Green Bay Packers in the 1960's, is saying a lot!) and Norm Van Brocklin, head coach of the Atlanta Falcons (an NFL team) was said to have told a reporter, "This will be Namath's first professional football game." Namath had been asked about the point spread a countless number of times in the days leading up to the game. Finally, he had enough when a heckler at a sports banquet in Miami three days before the game pushed him to the edge and he told the press, "We're going to win the game. I guarantee it." And, in one of the greatest upsets in the history of professional football (and arguably, one of the greatest upsets in all of sports), Namath led the Jets to their first (and only) Super Bowl victory. Namath ended up the game with 17 completions on 28 passing attempts for a total of 206 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. Neither quarterback for the Colts was very effective (Morall threw three interceptions, Unitas threw one interception late in the game).
I would compare Namath's "guarantee" to Babe Ruth's "called shot" (Ruth famously pointed towards the outfield bleachers during an at-bat in the fifth inning of Game 3 of the 1932 World Series at Wrigley Field, against the Chicago Cubs). I would ask, are these examples of incredibly talented and confident individuals who made bold, visionary statements that rallied their teammates, or are these examples of two individuals who were overly confident, bordering on conceit, and in the end just got plain lucky? No one ever talks about the individuals who made similar gestures or remarks but did not or could not deliver (there are a number of cases throughout sports history). There are certainly examples of players making promises or guarantees about how hard they will work to get a victory - a great example (and a great story) that comes to mind is when Tim Tebow, after a humiliating loss to the University of Mississippi, 31-30, claimed in a post-game interview:
I promise you one thing. A lot of good will come out of this. You will never see any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of the season. You will never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season. You will never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season.
These words have been immortalized on a plaque outside the University of Florida's football stadium. The Gators went on to win the rest of their games that year, including a 24-14 victory over Oklahoma to win the National Championship. THAT, I think, is a better "guarantee" than either Namath's or Ruth's. Tebow had a vision for where he wanted the team to go (winning the College Football National Championship) and made a promise to do everything that he could humanly do in order to get there - not by himself, but with his teammates. The speech was inspirational and rallied his team together, and they did amazing things in the end. Don't get me wrong, I think Namath's "guarantee" is a great story. His team clearly rallied around him to get the victory in the end. But I think there are a number of examples of statements like this that have been made, only to serve as a rallying cry for the other team, the opponent! It would be hard to use Tebow's version of a "guarantee" as a rallying cry for the other team.
I see similar parallels with the use of aspirational or "stretch" goals (what Jim Collins would call a "Big Hairy Audacious Goal" or BHAG). In this context, if used carefully and not excessively (in terms of "over-the-top" - ness), I do think that stretch goals can be used as rallying cries for transformational change. But in my experience, if stretch goals are used again and again for every transformational change or quality improvement effort, individuals get tired very easily with them (and they become the "flavor of the month" or the "next greatest thing" and can be counterproductive). Use them sparingly - with change efforts that really matter (for example, President Obama's cancer "moon shot" is a great example of an appropriate use of a BHAG). Stretch goals must be consistent with the organization's overall vision, otherwise they will fail. Finally, the stretch goals must involve something that the organization is passionate about (e.g., curing cancer, eliminating patient harm, etc.).
Organizations should be bold and visionary, but they should be bold like Tim Tebow and NOT like Joe Namath.
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